ピエトロ・ボセリのインスタグラム(pietroboselli) - 9月7日 23時24分

In this episode, I explain the concept of "base rate," or prior probability, which is very useful in making predicitons but often ignored by our intuition. Our intuition generally prefers situational evidence over base rates. Stereotypes are a form of base rates that our intuition actually uses, sometimes correctly, often incorrectly.

This is the 9th episode of this (late night) series, in which I explore how our mind works, how we make judgments and predictions, how we are prone to errors and biases, and then how to moderate these with a few concepts of statistics. Over 10 episodes, the idea is to become more self-critical and value the pursuit of truth over "being right."

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