ABC Newsさんのインスタグラム写真 - (ABC NewsInstagram)「As the virtual Democratic National Convention opens, Joe Biden holds a 12 percentage-point lead over President Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll of registered voters, 53-41%, and a similar 10 points among likely voters, 54-44%, with two-and-a-half months to go until Election Day.⁣ ⁣ Beneath that result is an underlying shift: the share of Biden supporters who are very enthusiastic about supporting him has grown from 28% in March to 48% today. He still has a wide deficit on this gauge compared with Trump, with 65% strong enthusiasm, but it's eased considerably. It's a measure to watch because enthusiasm can encourage turnout, especially given the extra effort needed to vote in many states this year.⁣ ⁣ Views of the broader economy typically outweigh personal finances in political considerations, and here is a root of Trump's risks. Sixty-eight percent of Americans say the economy is in not-so-good or poor shape, the most, as noted, in ABC/Post polls since October 2014 -- heading into the midterm elections that flipped the Senate to the then out-party Republicans and boosted their margin in the House.⁣ ⁣ Negative ratings of the economy are up 20 points since Trump took office, double their level in November 2018 and 39 points higher than in a Bloomberg survey in February, a month before the pandemic came crashing in.⁣ ⁣ These views matter: among registered voters who say the economy is in excellent or good shape, 79% support Trump and Mike Pence. Among those who say it's in bad shape, by contrast, 70% support Biden and Kamala Harris -- rising to 84% of those who give the economy the worst rating, poor.⁣ ⁣ Indeed, in a statistical analysis called regression, including controls for partisanship, ideology and demographic variables, discontent with the national economy is a significant independent predictor of vote preferences, as is worry about catching the coronavirus -- both negatively for Trump.」8月18日 8時16分